Pops 'n' Buzzes

Quick Hit Baseball Predictions

2007-04-01T08:05:00.000-04:00

No time to do an exhaustive analysis of the divisions this year, so here's my predicted orders of finish:

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, D-Rays, Orioles
AL Central: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Royals
AL West: Rangers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners
AL Wild Card: Yankees
ALDS: Yankees over Rangers, Red Sox over Tigers
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

NL East: Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Reds, Pirates
NL West: Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies
NL Wild Card: Mets
NLDS: Mets over Giants, Phillies over Cubs
NLCS: Phillies over Mets

WORLD SERIES: Phillies over Red Sox

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young: Jeremy Bonderman
AL Rookie: Daisuke Matsuzaka

NL MVP: Derrek Lee
NL Cy Young: Barry Zito
NL Rookie: Felix Pie

Posting Funk

2006-06-17T14:20:00.000-04:00

Al Baker (one of my preferred reads) commented yesterday on his blog about being "blog dry". I have been that way for months. I get ideas in my head to post about, then forget them when I do have time to post. I have been doing a LOT of wrestling with matters spiritual lately and hope to get time to create a cohesive blog post over at Sojourn. I also want to get mediarants active again.

In the meantime, I will tell you it was a very busy spring, we've had a lot of great family time together and look forward to lots more this summer and, oh yeah, the project I'm leading at work SUCKS.

's about it. Later.

2006 MLB Season Preview

2006-04-05T08:25:00.000-04:00

OK, so I did off-season reviews for everyone but the NL West. You can read them here, here, here, here and here.

I really wanted to do a super-detailed post like last year's , but there just isn't time, so here's the quick'n'dirty predictions.

AL East: I think the Blue Jays are, on paper, better than the Red Sox this year. The Sox offense can be controlled if Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz don't have runners on base to knock in. I think the Jays can do damage from anywhere in their order. However, they're playing for the wild card. I think the Yankees have a pretty special team this year. I expect Randy Johnson to be much improved in his second year in NY and Johnny Damon is going to have a huge impact at the top of the order. 150 runs scored by Damon this year is not inconceivable. I also expect the Devil Rays to finish ahead of Baltimore and Miguel Tejada to be elsewhere by the trade deadline.

Predicted order of finish: Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Devil Rays, Orioles.

AL Central: The Indians are the darling pick this year, but there's a lot risk here. C.C. Sabathia has already gone on the DL, Bob Wickman is an injury risk and there is the potential of sophomore slumps for Jhonny Peralta and others. The White Sox were the better team last year and the changes they made (Javier Vazquez for Orlando Hernandez, Jim Thome for Frank Thomas) are all improvements. If Brian Anderson can handle centre field, the Sox should run away with the division. Minnesota and Detroit will have a battle for third. Detroit could backslide this year in terms of wins, but that's just because other teams improved so dramatically. Kansas City should just stimk on general principle.

Predicted order of finish: White Sox, Indians, Twins, Tigers, Royals.

AL West: This should be a fun division. I think the Angels are weaker this year and will be passed by the A's, who have much better pitching. Texas took some big strides forward, pitching-wise, this offseason but took a major hit losing Adam Eaton until the All-Star Break. Seattle is coming on strong, and may pass Texas this year, but it'll be next year they contend for the division title.

Predicted order of finish: A's, Angels, Mariners, Rangers.

NL East: A lot of predictions I have read this year favour either the Braves or Phillies this year. I think the Braves are thin on offense and Philly's starting pitching is thin. I am leaning in the direction of the Mets, but this is a division loaded with ifs. If Chipper Jones stays healthy, if Andruw Jones' numbers are closer to 2005 levels than 2004, if John Thomson comes back strong and if Chris Reitsma or Joey Devine can become a reliable closer, the Braves can win this. If Philly's starting pitching is better than advertised, if Tom Gordon can hold up as closer, if Ryan Howard doesn't have a sophomore slump and if the Phils can land a solid #1 starter in exchange for Bob Abreu, the Phils can win. If Billy Wagner, Pedro Martinez and Steve Trachsel stay healthy, if David Wright and Jose Reyes continue trending up and if the clubhouse holds together, the Mets win. The Nats and Marlins go into the season knowing they have no hope of making the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see how things play out in those two cities. I still see good things happening in Florida and Washigton dismantling at the deadline.

Predicted order of finish: Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nats, Marlins.

NL Central: St. Louis still wins, but the Cubs and Brewers will close the gap. I really like Milwaukee this year, with better-than-average starting pitching (especially once Ben Sheets is healthy), a plus closer and a great offense made up of up-and-coming youngsters and experienced veterans. The Cubs have a good setup for the top of the order, but need Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Houston will struggle this year, with or without Clemens (but I like their chances better with him) and Pittsburgh is a year away yet. Cincy could compete, if they could find some pitching.

Predicted order of finish: Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Astros, Pirates, Reds.

NL West: 82 wins will not win the division this year. Assuming San Francisco stays healthy and the Bonds Circus doesn't swallow the team whole, they have a shot. Chris Young should be really good following Jake Peavy in San Diego this year and, as they learn how to play at Petco, the Padres should enjoy one of the more significant home field advantages in the majors. Arizona will muddle along this year, as will Colorado. The wild card is the Dodgers. They made some great moves in the offseason, particularly signing Rafael Furcal away from Atlanta. The Dodgers are a talented team, but they always get burned by intangibles and/or injuries. Says here it happens again this year.

Predicted order of finish: Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies.

So the division winners are: Yankees, White Sox, A's in the AL. Mets, Cardinals, Padres in the NL. AL Wild Card will be Toronto. NL Wild Card will be Philly.

Division Series:

White Sox over Blue Jays
Yankees over A'
Cardinals over Phillies
Mets over Padres

LCS:

Yankees over White Sox
Cardinals over Mets

World Series:

Yankees over Cardinals

It's coming.............

2006-03-29T07:17:00.000-05:00

The 2006 Baseball Season Preview is being written. Check back soon!

My two cents on the Olympics

2006-02-24T07:16:00.000-05:00

The Olympics wrap up this weekend. I have watched less than 6 hours of coverage. I doubt I'll see much more. However, me being me, I want to add my two cents on a couple of things.

First, when the Canadian Olympic team was announced, a number of my coworkers and I grumped long and loud about the number of "oldsters" playing on the team. I felt that guys like Sidney Crosby, Jason Spezza and Eric Staal had more than earned their way onto the main squad. I couldn't understand why guys like Todd Bertuzzi, Shane Doan and other older players got the nods. I also was somewhat upset that Paul Kariya, a guy who ALWAYS has stepped up his game on the world stage, was left off. However, my brother and brother-in-law both made sound arguments to me supporting the selections, so I figured I'd wait and see.

Looks like I was right. But I blame Pat Quinn, who has outlived his usefulness as a coach (for now). This was a horribly unmotivated team that underperformed across the board and, after a hot start against creampuffs, packed up and went home once they faced some real competition. Sound like the Leafs? Everybody praised Quinn after the 2002 Olympic Gold but let's be real here. I could've coached that group to the gold. Putting the same guys out 4 years later (and 4 years older and slower) will not win a medal. Quinn cannot teach or motivate young guys (nor does he know how to incorporate them into the lineup), because he prefers to deal with a group of seasoned, ultra-talented vets who know how to go out and win, because they've done it over and over again. I hope that, in 2010, Gretzky puts a young team out there, supported by key veterans (a list that will include the young guns of this season) and a coach that has fire, skill and the ability to relate to and motivate a diverse group of players.

Oh, and the over-under on Quinn's ouster from T.O. is about 1 month.

Secondly, and more important, I fear that the lousy men's hockey result will lead to a "we sucked in Turin" backlash. Nothing is further than the truth. I am proud of this team and their (so far) 19 medals. Cindy Klassen has been awesome, the women's hockey team proved themselves yet again, there have been some surprises (cross-country skier Chandra Crawford) and, on the whole, Canadians should be VERY satisfied with the results.

Go Canada!!!!!!!!!

If you have no other plans for SuperBowl

2006-02-03T13:21:00.000-05:00

Come join us:

Tickets are $15 and available Sunday morning and at the door. Food menu includes:

Roast pig
Hot Roast Beef sandwiches
Sausage on a Bun
Lasagna
Salads

A licensed cardiologist will be on site. Dietitians are not invited.

Great prizes including official NFL jerseys, t-shirts, caps and footballs, all sorts of hardware and a great grand prize that will be revealed at game time.

E-mail philpottmen@gmail.com for more information.

If you cannot attend, your prayers for this event are coveted.

Super Bowl Prediction

2006-02-03T09:53:00.000-05:00

So, I did pretty good through the playoffs, going 7-3 picking winners. Now comes a game that is really tough to pick, so I'm going to break it down:

Offense: These two teams will both want to establish the running game, moreso Seattle than Pittsburgh. Assuming the teams stay to form, Ben Roethlisberger will be taking to the air in an effort to spread the defense and open up the ground game for Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker. Meanwhile, Seattle will turn Shaun Alexander loose and dare Pittsburgh's defense to stop him. Odds are they will, to a degree. I like Pitsburgh's receivers a lot more than Seattle's and Jerome Bettis will be seriously motivated, as he plays his final game of his illustrious career in his hometown. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Defense: Blitzburgh will be in full effect. The Steelers will put 7 and 8 defenders in the box to try and stop Alexander and mix schemes and blitz angles in an effort to confuse Hasselbeck. The Seahawks defense will also be loading up to put pressure on Big Ben and the runners, but the Seahawks can do so confident that their corners are OK in man-on-man situations. The Steelers have to make sure they get to Hasselbeck, because if he get s time to throw, the Steeler secondary can be had. Especially if Troy Polamalu is part of the blitz package. Advantage: Pittsburgh up front, Seattle in the secondary.

Special Teams: Should be pretty even, since neither team has a real breakaway kind of returner and they are not overly aggressive trying to block punts. Antwaan Randle-El can break big punt returns (2 TD's this year), but I don't see him getting many chances, since Seattle will likely key on him and try to kick away from him. Field position will be huge in this game and the team that does the best job of pinning the opposition deep will win. For that, it's the punters and gunners, and I like Pittsburgh's Chris Gardocki more than Seattle's Tom Rouen. Add in the fact that the game's indoors, and I like the Steelers. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Coaching/Intangibles: Mike Holmgren has a shot at history, becoming the first coach to win Super Bowls with two teams. He has Seattle really clicking and knows how to keep 'em performing. Bill Cowher has toned down the emotion in the last few years, but don't mistake that for a lack of intensity. He and his staff have come up with schemes to rein in Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer this playoff season and they made the right adjustments against Cincinnati to enable them to come back and win. Plus there's the Bettis factor and a few boneheaded comments made by Seahawks players during the media days that you can bet will be on the locker room boards. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Add it all up and I see a long day coming for Seattle. Pittsburgh 26-19.

Off Season Transaction Analysis - NL Central

2006-01-21T09:02:00.000-05:00

St. Louis has owned this division for the past two years, but everyone else is starting to catch up. Let's review:

Chicago: I have been hard on the Cubbies in earlier posts, but I will give them props for some recent deals. Signing Jacque Jones away from Minnesota and trading for Juan Pierre are two significant steps in the right direction. They gave up on Corey Patterson, too, which I think was a good move for both sides. The power is all in the infield (Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, specifically), but Pierre and Jones should hit 1-2 and be effective. This is a team that will play a lot of small ball this year, manufacturing runs rather than waiting for the big bop. Pitching is always a question mark, since the health of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior is never guaranteed. Having said that, a starting five of Wood, Pior, Greg Maddux, Carlos Zambrano and Glendon Rusch isn't too shabby. Direction: Slightly Up.

Cincinnati: Boy, I wish I knew what to make of this team. They have a scary good group of outfielders (Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena). Looks like one of them (probably Dunn) will likely be converted to a first baseman to replace the departed Sean Casey, swapped to Pittsburgh for Dave Williams. The Reds then dealt for Tony Womack, probably as insurance in case super-sub Ryan Freel gets hurt. Felipe Lopez had a breakout season last year, and this year could be Edwin Encarnacion's turn. Add in the great catcher combo of Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin, and you have as good an offense as anyone else in the division. But, boy, is that pitching still bad. Direction: Neutral.

Houston: If you've heard of the play "Waiting fo Godot", meet the cast of "Waiting for Clemens". Everything in Houston depends on Roger Clemens' decision whether or not to pitch this season. The only significant move the Astros made this offseason was signing Preston Wilson. That move further proves that the Astros want to get rid of Jeff Bagwell and his wrecked shoulders, as Wilson's signing forces Lance Berkman to first base, assuming the Astros feel Jason Lane is ready to assume the center field job full-time (which he is). Direction: Neutral, pointing Down.

Milwaukee: Here's the team that could make the jump from division also-ran to player. Of course, we've heard it all before. Did OK in completing two trades with the Blue Jays, getting David Bush, Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson and Corey Koskie for Lyle Overbay and Brian Wolfe. Overbay was out of a job with the ascension of Prince Fielder, and the Brewers have a lot of good, young talent (Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy and Brady Clark) combined with some great veterans (Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins and Koskie). The pitching staff is better than you think, as Doug Davis would have won more than 11 games last year with better run support. Tomo Ohka and Dave Bush are both good pitchers and, if Ben Sheets is healthy, this team looks good. In short, they didn't make a lot of moves this offseason, but they really didn't need to. And the moves they had to make, they did. Direction: Up.

Pittsburgh: I really want to see Pittsburgh do well. Sadly, it won't be this year. Instead of sticking with growing a team up from the minors, they go out and sign Joe Randa and Jeromy Burnitz to free-agent contracts, trade for Sean Casey, re-signed all of their arbitration-eligible guys and unloaded Mark Redman, Tike Redman, Mike Restovich and Dave Williams. Doesn't make much sense. Also, they let Jose Mesa walk (not necessarily a bad thing), but Mike Gonzalez looks ready for prime time. This club got older this offseason and that's not good. Direction: Neutral, pointing Down.

St. Louis: The defending division champs underwent an extreme makeover of sorts after last year's ugly playoff exit against the Astros. They cut ties with OF's Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker and dealt for Juan Encarnacion and Larry Bigbie, added 2B Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles (who should have a fun slugfest for the job in Spring Training) and signed Braden Looper to set up, and as insurance, for Jason Isringhausen. They also cut loose Matt Morris and are giving Sidney Ponson a second chance after his Baltimore banishment. On paper, not good, but this is St. Louis, land of the greatest clubhouse and fans in the NL, not to mention Tony LaRussa, so you gotta think good things. Direction: Neutral, pointing Down.

Coming soon....the NL West!

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

2006-01-21T08:46:00.000-05:00

Well, I got the NFC 100% right. Sadly, I got the AFC 100% wrong. Let's see how we do this week:

Pittsburgh at Denver: Turns out I had things backwards for the Steelers-Colts game last week, as the Steelers were seriously motivated and took an 11-point lead to the locker room at halftime. Oh, well. Despite the big lead, Bill Cowher yet again went ultra conservative in the 4th quarter and nearly paid for it. I have come to the conclusion that he will never learn. When the Steelers are aggressive on defense and mixing up the offense, they are nearly unbeatable (as we saw through much of last week's game). They need to do it for 60 minutes. I think if the Steeler blitz starts getting to Jake Plummer, he'll revert to Arizona-vintage Plummer and start throwing ducks and interceptions. Both teams will be putting 6, 7 and 8 guys in the box to stop the run and this game will come down to two things, the QB and the O-Lines. In both cases, I like Pittsburgh more. Pittsburgh 27-20

Carolina at Seattle: Everybody is talking about Steve Smith, and well they should be. What he did to the great Chicago defense last week was amazing. Problem this week is that Carolina deosn't have DeShaun Foster to offset him. I think Seattle will double and triple team Smith and dare Carolina to beat them with Nick Goings, their third-string RB. Seattle is expected to have Shaun Alexander ready to go, and their balanced attack will give them more options than Carolina has. I think we'll see a high scoring game with Seattle getting the last points. Seattle 30-27

Super Bowl in two weeks.

NFL Conference Semi-Final Predictions

2006-01-12T09:04:00.000-05:00

3 of 4 last weekend. I only missed Cincy, but who knows what the result would have been had Carson Palmer not blown out his knee. Let's look to this weekend:

Washington at Seattle: Mark Brunell's line from last Saturday's game at Tampa: 7-15, 41 yds., 0 TD, 1 INT QB Rating: 25.7. Clinton Portis' line from the same game: 16 carries, 53 yards, 1 TD. Those are UGLY numbers. The defense carried the day, and the Skins' season was likely saved by Edell Shepherd's horrible drop in the dying seconds. The D will need to do the job again, but this time they are facing an experienced quarterback and a runner (Shawn Alexander) who has a nose for the endzone. Some people I've listened to/read this week say that Washington will give the Hawks fits this week. I don't think so. 23-10 Seattle.

New England at Denver: If the New England team that showed up for the first half of the Jacksonville game is what goes on the field in Denver, Mike Shanahan will dance a jig. If the second half version shows up, it's going to be a very long day. The Pats were way off their rhythm in the first half of the Jags game and still went to the locker room leading 7-3. Against Denver, they'd be facing at least a 10-point deficit. New England needs their A-game all game against Denver, who have definitely got something to prove this week. It's going to be very close, and will probably go to OT, but I think the Pats will prevail.New England 24-21.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: How is it possible the Steelers went to the locker room losing 17-14 to a team with JON KITNA at QB? Sure, they won 31-17, but CNN-SI's Dr. Z, in his column, notes an interesting fact that the Steelers offense (particularly the running game) gets better as the game goes on. That implies to me that, if you get a big lead early, the Steelers have a hard time playing catch-up. It's also worth noting that the Steeler's second TD was off a trick play immediately following a shanked punt. They won't get those opportunities against Indy, who will be rested and healthy and, most importantly, seriously motivated. I think Indy goes to the locker room up by at least two TD's and then just outlasts the Steelers in the second half. Colts 31-17

Carolina at Chicago: During the post game show after Carolina's man-handling of the Giants, Chris Berman cracked that the over-under for this game should be 9.5. I might take the under. This is going to be a slow, plodding, smashmouth defensive battle with little-to-no offense. Carolina's chances may well hang on the health of DeShaun Foster, who is listed as probable for Saunday afternoon. That Bear defense is something to behold and they will be swarming all over Jake Delhomme and the rest of the Panther offense all day. This is a game where the winning team will be the one that doesn't waste opportunities to put points on the board, wins the field position battle and keeps the ball longest. I think, based on a gut instinct, that Carolina will find a way to do just that. Carolina 13-10

A lot of sportscasters/writers are making a big thing about the fact that all of this week's matchups happened during the season. Granted, it don't happen often, but so what? The regular season is NOTHING like the playoffs. There might be some lessons learned, but that's all. Should be a great weekend of football.

Back next week with the Conference Finals.

NFL Predictions

2006-01-07T08:53:00.000-05:00

I know, I know.....NL Central and West off-season transaction reviews are coming. But the playoffs are here in the NFL and I just felt I HAD to do a little preview. Since getting involved in a couple of pick 'em pools over the past couple of years (and doing better than CNN-SI's Peter King), I have really started to closely follow the NFL and this year's playoffs are very intriguing. So let's look at the games of wild-card weekend:

Washington at Tampa Bay: The game widely considered to be, potentially, the best of the weekend is first up (4:30 today). Last time these two teams met, Chris Simms announced his presence to the NFL world by leading the Bucs on a last-minute TD drive to stun the Redskins 36-35. This week's game will not be like that. First, I think Jon Gruden will try to keep Simms from going to the air too much to keep his playoff jitters from being a factor. That means lots of Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams and his running mates Mike Pittman and Mike Alstott. That equals long drives that eat clock. Washington will also be forced to try long, slow drives too, but for a different reason. Clinton Portis looked pretty worn out at the end of last week's must-win against Philly. If he's worn down, Joe Gibbs will need to limit his carries. If so, that means more Ledell Betts and, maybe, the return of Rock Cartwright. Mark Brunell's knee is still iffy, so he'll have to limit his time in the pocket against the ferocious Tampa rush, meaning short passess and a lot of underneath routes. Hello, Chris Cooley, get ready for the game of your life. Both teams' defenses will likely put 7 or 8 defenders in the box to plug up the run and dare the other team to win through the air. I see a low scoring game, a couple of key mistakes by rookies Simms and Williams and a heroic effort from vet Clinton Portis. 17-14 Washington.

Jacksonville at New England: Man, could Jacksonville have gotten a worse draw? The two-time defending champs (on a major roll), at New England, AT NIGHT. It's going to be freakin' freezing out there, probably snowy too. Anybody who thinks the warm-weather Jags have a chance in this, raise your hand...

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Thought so. New England wins going away. New England 24-10.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants: Here's the interesting game of the week. By all rights, Carolina should have won the NFC South this year and be the prohibitive favourite to represent the NFC at the Super Bowl. A vicious, swarming defense and a good passing offense bolstered by a great running game should have been enough. Instead, the Panthers will have to be the first team ever to win three road games in the playoffs to achieve their pre-season destiny. That actually my be good, since the last two home games the Panthers had were both losses. Losses that put them on the road as an 11-5 wild card rather than at home as 13-3 division champs. The Panthers will throw absolutely everything at Tiki Barber this weekend and make the Giants win through the air, where Eli Manning has been wildly inconsistent. Add to that the fact that one of Manning's favorite targets, tight end Jeremy Shockey, is hurting, and it's a long road for the home team. Carolina 20-14

Pittsburgh at Cinicinnati: At 4:30 Sunday afternoon, this game kicks off. Everyone else loves Washington - T-Bay, this is my pick for game of the week. Pittsburgh won the first meeting in Week 7, 27-13, while the Bengals won the Week 13 rematch, 38-31. The question here is which set of skill players (Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker and Hines Ward or Cinicinnati's Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Rudi Johnson) will be able to execute their game plan better? Pittsburgh's defense took some sort of a holiday through the middle part of the season, before returning for weeks 14-16, allowing a total of 12 points to the Bears, Browns and Vikings. However, giving up 21 to the weak Lions last week should give pause. Pittsburgh's secondary can be had, as Palmer proved in Week 13. The atmosphere In Cincy this weekend should be bordering on riotous, and I think the kids are going to use a fast-attack game to keep the Steelers on their heels and force them to play catch-up. The Steelers need to be able to execute their run-oriented, ball-control offense that eats up the clock. If the Bengal defense can hold the runners and the offense ring up early points, Big Ben will have to step up and the Steelers almost never win shootouts. Says here they won't this weekend, either. Bengals 31-27

Back next week with the Conference Semi-Finals.

Off-Season Transaction Analysis - NL East

2005-12-30T08:41:00.000-05:00

Before we begin, I want to comment on a couple of things that have happened in the AL over the last week or two. First, the Jays went out and got a BIG bat in Troy Glaus. However, I wonder whether the price was a bit steep. Orlando Hudson has steadily improved each of the last three years and Miguel Batista is a better pitcher than last year's numbers indicate. Also, the signing of Glaus increases the corner infielder glut as he joins Lyle Overbay, Eric Hinske, Shea Hillenbrand and Corey Koskie. With the DH, that leaves two of the above ffive out of the lineup every day. Sure, it's an impressive bench, but I can't see any of those five being really happy in any sort of reserve-type role. Hinske and Koskie seem to be the odd men out and hopefully Ricciardi can get something decent in return. Having said all that, a batting order of Aaron Hill, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand, Reed Johnson, Russ Adams and Greg Zaun is certainly something to get excited about.

Second...don't look now, but Texas is assembling some pretty impressive starting pitching. With the announcement of the signing of Kevin Millwood to a 5-year deal, the Rangers now have a top 3 of Millwood, Vicente Padilla and Adam Eaton. That's pretty darn good. If Juan Dominguez and Joaquin Benoit turn up good in the 4 and 5, the Rangers will be there come September.

On to the NL East.

It was the most competitive division in 2005, with all 5 teams finishing over .500 and in the playoff hunt until the last two weeks of the season. It's a division where the moves made in the offseason will be critical to the success/failure of 2006. Let's review:

Atlanta: This has been a brutal offseason for the division champs. Not only have they lost Rafael Furcal and Kyle Farnsworth to free agency, but ace pitching coach Leo Mazzone will be working with Baltimore's staff this year. Looks like 2006 will be a kind of rebuilding year for the Braves, as they have committed to Brian McCann behind the plate by dealing Johnny Estrada to Arizona for two relievers. The hole left by Furcal's departure is only partly filled with the arrival of Edgar Renteria. However, Renteria cost them Andy Marte, leaving them at the mercy of Chipper Jones' aging body. The Braves sent Dan Kolb back to Milwaukee and received Wes Obermuller in return. He will probably get a shot, along with Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez at joining Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and John Thomson, in the rotation in the spring. However, the Braves are now without a true closer (although Chris Reitsma will get first shot) and the pitching staff will have to learn to deal with a new coach. Direction: Should be neutral, but in this division, gotta say Down.

Florida: Think Atlanta had a rough go? That's nothing compared to the disaster we're likely to see this year in Florida. This year's fire sale has seen the exodus of the team's starting 1st, 2nd and 3rd basemen, their starting catcher, their starting centerfielder, a key bench guy, two of their top three starters and their top two relievers. In place of Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell, Paul LoDuca, Juan Pierre, Jeff Conine, A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, Guillermo Mota and Todd Jones Florida fans will be treated to Mike Jacobs, Josh Wilson, Hanley Ramirez (Miguel Cabrera moves to third base), Jeremy Hermida, Eric Reed, Chris Aguila and Josh Willingham on offense and Jose Vargas, Brian Moehler and Sergio Mitre behind Dontrelle Willis and Travis Bowyer at closer set up by Joe Borowski. Not quite as imposing, no? Direction: Down, Down, Down.

New York: From the outhouse to the penthouse. The Mets have had a brilliant offseason, building a team that, on paper, should be the best of the NL East. The Mets started with the acquisition of Xavier Nady from the Padres in exchange for Mike Cameron. Nady will be more comfortable in a corner outfield spot and will allow Carlos Beltran to patrol centre field, where he is happiest. They then proceeded to fleece the Marlins for Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca in separate deals. Both are significant upgrades and the Mets can now cut ties with Mike Piazza. The Mets went on to solve their closer problem by signing free agent Billy Wagner away from division rival Philadelphia. Factor in the acquisitions of Tike Redman, Jose Valentin, Julio Franco and Endy Chavez and the Mets have built a bench with a mix of power, speed and experience. They've also added some relatively cheap pitching (Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver, Matt Perisho) and, combined with the talent already in place, this team is primed for a Series run this year. Direction: Up, Up, Up.

Philadelphia: I think I understand what this team is doing, but I'm not sure. They are loaded with young talent (Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Jason Michaels, etc.) and some very expensive veterans. So, they cut bait, letting Jim Thome go to the White Sox and Billy Wagner walk to the Mets. The Phils are still paying a huge chunk of Thome's salary, but they can afford it. The lineup is still sound, as is the rotation. The bullpen's an issue, as it's iffy whether or not Tom Gordon can cut it and the next best option is Ryan Madson, who flamed out last year. Direction: Neutral.

Washington: The Nationals have made a couple of significant deals this offsesason, the biggest of which was landing Alfonso Soriano from Texas. Sure, they gave up two top outfielders (Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson) to get him, but he should have a huge presence in the lineup. The hope is that Soriano will accept a spot in the outfield, but he still wants to play second, which could cause havoc with team leader Jose Vidro. Brian Lawrence was a good acquisition as well and should fit nicely into the middle of the Nats' rotation behind Livan Hernandez and John Patterson. Ramon Ortiz could also turn out to be a decent, back-of-the-rotation acquisition. The Nats are going to be competitive this year. Direction: Up.

Coming soon....the NL Central!

Off-Season Transaction Analysis - AL West

2005-12-23T14:45:00.000-05:00

Let's see what's happening in the AL West, shall we?

Los Angeles: The Steve Finley era ends as he is shipped to San Francisco for Edgardo Alfonzo. The question is whether Alfonzo is insurance in case Dallas MacPherson can't go or have the Angels soured on McPherson? Otherwise, not much is happening out L.A. way, as they have yet to find a bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero (who was horribly exposed in the playoffs). Direction - Neutral.

Oakland: Signing Esteban Loaiza to such an outlandish deal (3 years, 14+ million) was so un-Billy Beane-like that one has to wonder what else is in the offing. There are constant rumours of a deal involving Barry Zito, but all we've seen is a deal for Milton Bradley, which I think Beane did as a favour to the Dodgers. Direction - Neutral.

Seattle: I covered Kenji Johjima earlier. The M's have been somewhat busy, signing Jarrod Washburn to a 4-year deal, Carl Everett to a 1-year deal and re-upping for another year with ageless wonder Jamie Moyer. They must be hoping that Adrian Beltre will pay off this year. Direction - Neutral in either the AL East or Central, but this much activity qualifies as Up in the West.

Texas: Very nearly gave away Hank Blalock to Florida in an effort to land Josh Beckett, but they've done well otherwise. Picked up Vicente Padilla for spare parts, dealt Alfonso Soriano to Washington for two plus outfielders (Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge) and a pitcher. Sledge was then packaged, along with Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young, to the Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and a prospect. Let Kenny Rogers walk, but that's OK. Eaton and Padilla solidify the rotation and Otsuka will be huge setting Francisco Cordero. Direction - Up.

Well, that's the AL. See you after Christmas to do the NL. Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!

Off-Season Transaction Analysis - AL Central

2005-12-22T08:28:00.000-05:00

Before we begin, a large BOO-YAH to my Yankees, signing my favourite leadoff guy Johnny Damon to a 4-year deal. The idea of a lineup that reads Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Sheffield, Giambi, Matsui, Posada, Williams and Cano makes my heart sing. Of course, it would be nice if the Yanks could land a good defensive first baseman and move Giambi to DH, but that's a small issue. Now shore up the bench, Mr. Cashman.

Let's see what's happening in the AL Central, shall we?

Chicago: I have already made mention of the Jim Thome signing, Frank Thomas' release and the re-signing of Paul Konerko. Yes, Thome cost Aaron Rowand, leaving a hole in centre field, but that can be fixed. Removing Thomas from the mix was key. In December, the White Sox suckered the D-Backs into taking Orlando Hernandez and spare parts for Javier Vazquez, who I still consider to be a plus starter. Plus, the White Sox re-upped another player integral to their World Series run, signing AJ Pierzynski to a 3-year deal. Factor in the acquisition of utility guy Rob Mackowiak from Pittsburgh and ridding themselves of Carl Everett and it looks like a good offseason for the champs. Direction - Up.

Cleveland: Danny Graves, Steve Karsay and Lou Merloni have all signed minor league deals with an invite to spring training. All three could have real value to an Indians team that needs to shore up the supporting roles on the bench and in the bullpen. Paul Byrd also helps out the rotation. They really need to get moving and re-sign Kevin Millwood. Direction - Neutral, up if they sign Millwood.

Detroit: Adding Kenny Rogers to the rotation and Todd Jones to the bullpen are both sound moves. However, that's about all the Tigers have done. In this division, that's not nearly enough. Plus, Ivan Rodriguez is rumoured to be unhappy. Not good. Direction - Down.

Kansas City: The lowest payroll in baseball will lead to another season of Mike Sweeney and good luck. KC is doing the best they can, signing Scott Elarton, Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz and Paul Bako and trading for Mark Redman. Mientkiewicz and Grudzielanek are solid defensively, but their signings just seem so much like throwing spaghetti at a wall and seeing what strands stick. Last place again. Direction - Down.

Minnesota: Decent offseason so far. The acquisition of Luis Castillo is a big help defensively and, if Castillo rediscovers his legs, at the top of the order too. If Tony Batista can plug in 25-30 HR and 80-100 RBI at third base and Rondell White can kick in 15-20 HR, the Twins will quickly forget Jacque Jones, who left to sign with the Cubs. Torii Hunter has to stay. Direction - Up.

Looks like I posted a day early

2005-12-10T09:09:00.000-05:00

So here's me, Mr. Expert, thinking we're all done with the big flurries of baseball business. Turns out I needed to wait one more day. The complete list of activities can be found here and here.

To recap the impact of all this activity, starting with the AL East:

Boston: A significant trading cycle ends with the departure of Edgar Renteria, swapped to Atlanta for Andy Marte. Marte moves right in at third, and Bill Mueller will move on. Still much to do, including finding a home for Manny Ramirez and deciding what to do with Johnny Damon. Safe bet, though, that any deal involving Ramirez has a ML-ready shortstop coming back. Direction - Up.

New York: Signed Kyle Farnsworth to set up for Mariano Rivera after Tom Gordon walked. This is a good move, as Farnsworth is much younger with a rocket arm that should be enough of a change-in-pace from Rivera that Rivera might get a little of the old mystique back. Still need to find a centre fielder and I am stunned that they offered arbitration to Bernie Williams. Thought they might have tried harder with Juan Pierre. Cut ties with Tony Womack, which should end any of this Robinson Cano for Torii Hunter talk. Direction - Neutral.

Baltimore: Heading in reverse, despite the signing of Ramon Hernandez. They could not get A.J. Burnett and lost B.J. Ryan, in both cases to division rival Toronto. Now Miguel Tejada wants out. Could a Ramirez for Tejada deal be in the offing with Boston? Direction - Down.

Toronto: Everybody says they're so improved, but it still seems to only be on paper. The Jays paid a lot for Lyle Overbay, but the Burnett signing made Dave Bush expendable and there wasn't a place in the Jays outfield for Gabe Gross. I guess the Eric Hinske era is officially over, unless they intend to package Hillenbrand with an outfielder for another big bat. Hearing whispers, too, that they're in the running to land Garciaparra. Direction - I want to say neutral, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and go with up.

Tampa Bay: The Sean Burroughs for Dewon Brazelton deal looks intriguing. Burroughs and Aubrey Huff will share 3B/DH duties, which spells trouble in the Rays outfield, as there just won't be enough at-bats to satisfy Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young who, according to reports, is definitely ready to go. I really like the idea of the Yanks shipping a veteran starter (say, Mike Mussina) to the Rays for an outfielder. Direction - Neutral.

I'll do the rest of the AL and all the NL over the next few days.

Baseball's Silly Season continued

2005-12-06T19:02:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow marks the end of the annual winter meetings, but there's certainly some stuff to cover. Let's recap shall we? Picking up where we left off.....

The Blue Jays went ahead and broke the bank on A.J. Burnett, signing him to a 5-year, $55 million deal. This on the heels of giving The Nose That Ate The Skydome (GM J.P. Ricciardi) a 3-year extension. Hmmm, $102 million on a pitcher yet to post a winning season and a closer with one good year under his belt. J.P. better be right or things will get ugly in T.O.

San Diego did the right thing and re-upped Brian Giles to the tune of 3 years and $30 million. Ditto the White Sox, who re-signed Paul Konerko to a 5-year, $50 million deal, ensuring that Frank Thomas will never darken their door again. The Padres really couldn't let the heart of their order walk and $10 million a season for a hitter of Giles' caliber is a steal. Sure the homer totals aren't as glossy as they were in Pittsburgh, but playing 81 games in Petco Death Valley will do that.

The Mets are a whole new team in 2006, fleecing the Marlins for both Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca. Factor in their free agent signing of closer Billy Wagner, now the highest per year salary closer at $10.75 million (his 4-year, $43 million deal is just shy of Ryan's), and the Mets are grabbing all the headlines in New York this offseason and, more importantly, are looking like the team to beat in the NL.

The Mets' division rivals, however, are not looking so good. Atlanta suffered two significant blows, as new closer Kyle Farnsworth bolted to the Yankees (3 years, $17 million) to set up Mariano Rivera and provide Rivera insurance in case something happens. The Braves also lost slick shortstop Rafael Furcal to L.A. (3 years, $39 million). The Phillies have replaced Billy Wagner with 38-year old Tom Gordon, inexplicably signing him to a 3-year, $18 million deal. That signing, 3 years for an old reliever with a history of elbow problems, is a real head-scratcher. Washington hasn't done much of anything, so they fall behind just because.

Then there's the Florida Marlins. The Marlins have dealt away, or let walk, two of their top three starters, their starting catcher, first baseman, second baseman and third baseman and their starting center fielder (Juan Pierre) may be next. They also traded away their closer. Not much left at all.

My last post listed winners and losers. The White Sox move from undecided to winners with the Konerko signing, the Indians move to undecided as I think signing Paul Byrd to a 2-year, $14.25 million deal is highly risky and they need to get to it and re-sign Kevin Millwood, and the Mets are now BIG winners.

Baseball's silly season

2005-11-26T09:05:00.000-05:00

I hadn't intended to rant today about salary lunacy in baseball, but rather how this year's free agency/trading activity is rapidly changing the baseball landscape. However, four reported signings/offers make me want to lead with a rant.

Found this on CNN/SI this morning.

Boy, if this is true, the small-market Blue Jays just blew up the bullpen salary structure but good. $47 million for BJ Ryan? On top of an apparent $50 million offer to AJ Burnett. Maybe they have a thing for initials.

Any Jays fans that beef to me about my Yankees and buying championships, I will forever point to these two offers and laugh myself sick.

I shudder to think about what Billy Wagner is telling his agent in light of the Ryan report. Wagner was looking at a 3 year/$30 million deal with the Mets, which at $10 million per year still puts him second behind Mariano Rivera in highest per year salary (Rivera's making $10.5 million/year). However, I'm sure he'll now go back and want the contract upped to $50 million over 4 years, since he apparently wants the biggest contract ever given to a reliever.

Mind you, bullpen salaries are getting out of hand whether the Ryan deal is true or not. The Cubs went out and blew $12 million on Bobby Howry and $11 million on Scott Eyre (who the Jays considered useless a few years ago). Each contract is for three years and Eyre's is guaranteed. That's $8 million a year for two guys whose primary responsibility is to hold leads for Ryan Dempster. Tom Gordon, setup man par excellence for Rivera the last two years, has gotta be thinking $5 million or maybe even $6 million a year when he signs his free agent deal sometime this offseason. A price tag that is patently ridiculous.

OK. Rant over.

The free agent season thus far is more notable for the trades that have been made as opposed to the free agent signings. Many big names remain on the market. A full list of trades/signings can be found here. Let's see who the big winners/losers are thus far:

Winners:

Boston: The Josh Beckett deal is a winner. Yes, they had to part with Hanley Ramirez and Harvey Garcia (and Anibal Sanchez and Jesus Delgado have some potential as Major League pitchers in a few years), meaning that Edgar Renteria is their best option for the foreseeable future, but Beckett fits in nicely as the #2 behind Curt Schilling. Assuming the Sox keep Matt Clement and/or David Wells and Bronson Arroyo continues to mature, this is a pretty potent rotation. Plus, Beckett gets to apprentice at the side of one of the best in Schilling. As well, the Sox got the Marlins to add in Guillermo Mota, who should be excellent Keith Foulke insurance and, along with Mike Timlin, create a pretty tough back end of the bullpen. They still have issues on offense, specifically clearing up the Manny Ramirez issue, deciding whether or not to sign Johnny Damon to the huge contract he wants, and sorting out the infield (keep Mike Lowell (part of the Beckett deal) or Bill Mueller at third (although Mueller could slide over to second, taking Tony Graffanino out of the mix) or deal an infielder along with Ramirez for a stud outfielder).

Mets: The Carlos Delgado deal is an instant upgrade for the offense and provides the Mets with a few options if a Manny Ramirez deal is in the offing. Apparently, the Red Sox are demanding Carlos Beltran (who was horrible in New York this season) in any deal for Ramirez, but the Mets were left with very few power options if the deal was made and Ramirez flamed out. Delgado is a proven middle-of-the-order hitter and should, with his laid-back personality, do just fine in NY. Giving up Yusmeiro Petit is costly and the loss of Mike Jacobs means (at this point) another season of Mike Piazza behind the plate, but the Mets should be OK. I really think, though, they should walk away from Billy Wagner, who proved himself to be a bit of a headcase in Philly.

Losers:

Marlins: Well, I think we can safely say that the Marlins won't be competing for a few years. With the announcement that they will likely relocate in 2008, the Marlins have basically told their Florida fanbase to stay home, letting A.J. Burnett walk, making a token (1 year/$1 million) offer to Jeff Conine (Mr. Marlin), giving away Josh Beckett, Guillermo Mota and Mike Lowell to the Red Sox (and they could have had Hank Blalock from Texas in a deal that wouldn't have cost them Mota). Then they topped it off by dealing away Carlos Delgado for limited immediate help in Mike Jacobs. Yes, the youngsters they got in these deals should be ready for prime time by 2008, but they sure screwed the Florida fanbase. I expect to see Juan Pierre and maybe Luis Castillo gone by New Years. Could be a 100-loss season this year and the end of Jack McKeon's managing career.

Cubs: I'm sorry, but $34 million in contracts to Bobby Howry (3 yrs/$12 million), Scott Eyre (3 yrs/$11 million), Glendon Rusch (2 yrs/$6 million) and Neifi Perez (2 yrs/$5 million) is suppposed to scare other teams how? They will let Nomar Garciaparra walk (and don't think Steinbrenner isn't entertaining the idea of putting Nomar in centre field in NY) and they have yet to make one impact signing. Methinks they are not looking World Series in 2006, especially if the offseason stories about Kerry Wood are true. Maybe they'll make a run at Brian Giles, who would be great hitting behind Derrek Lee.

Undecided:

Yankees: The Yankees did the right thing, re-signing Hideki Matsui (4 years, $52 million), but their offseason will be graded on one thing: How they replace Bernie Williams. If they overpay for Torii Hunter, not so good. If they are able to fleece the Marlins and steal Juan Pierre, all good.

White Sox: The champs are taking a huge risk dealing for Jim Thome. Mind you, they suckered the Phillies into throwing in $22 million to pay him, so it's a bargain basement insurance policy in the event they can't re-sign Paul Konerko. Losing Aaron Rowand hurts, but Scott Podsednik has the wheels to play centre. The deal also seems to (finally) signal the end of Frank Thomas' run in Chi-town, which has got to be considered a good thing.

Mariners: Seattle put a lot of money (3 years, $16.5 million) on the table for another Japanese league star, catcher Kenji Johjima. If Johjima is the catching equivalent of Ichiro, hoo-rah. However, I see lots of problems acquainting him with the pitching staff (not the least of which is the language issue) and, if he can't take control of the game defensively, the deal's a liability.

I'll do another of these after the GM winter meetings.

Health Updates

2005-11-26T09:01:00.000-05:00

First, the good news.....the MRI revealed no problems, so no tumours. Next step is a 2nd hearing test on Wednesday and then, I hope, a program to treat what looks like Meniere's Disease. If any readers out there have Meniere's or know someone who has it, invite them e-mail me (bjbenallick@hotmail.com) and share their experiences.

More good news.....today marks 17 days without dizziness attacks of any degree, which is the longest run yet.

Not so good news.....Christine has bronchial pneumonia and is on antibiotics. We thought Aidan might have the same thing, but his cough is apparently viral and should pass without drug assistance. Aaron's the only healthy one in the house.

Thanks for all your prayers and encouragement. Please don't stop.

Mixed Bag

2005-10-22T09:53:00.000-04:00

Where do I start?

Well, how about the World Series? Starts tonight. I believe it will come down to pitching and I take Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt and Lidge over Garcia, Buerhle, Garland, Contreras and Jenks. Astros in 6.

Christine worked her first night shift in about two years last night. Just try keeping two kids quiet on a rainy Saturday morning while she sleeps. Not easy.

Got some big ideas brewing for Philpott's annual Super Bowl party. More details to come....

Recap of the 2005 MLB Season

2005-10-16T22:15:00.000-04:00

I was supposed to deliver this earlier. See the post below if you want to know why it's late.

I reviewed my pre-season predictions (see them here) against the final season standings (see them here) and feel pretty good about the results. Flip the Yanks and Red Sox and I got the AL East exactly right. Same is true is the Marlins and Mets are flipped in the NL East. I missed the Indians in the AL Central and (other than calling the Cards winners) whiffed badly on the NL Central. I expected more from Texas and less from Oakland in the AL West and didn't give the D-Backs near enough credit in the NL West. On the plus side, though, I called 7 of the 8 playoff teams, tagging the Cubs as the NL Wild Card instead of Houston.

VERY surprised by the playoffs this year, as the ChiSox are showing some real moxie and just what a great pithing staff they have. Three consecutive complete games by one staff is almost unheard of in the regular season, much less the postseason. I think LA wins tonight, but it's all over Tuesday back in ChiTown. And what a run by Houston, who seem to have learned from last year and are taking advantage of some horrible injury luck the Cardinals are experiencing. Houston and the White Sox in the World Series? I could get with that.

I'll get to the Yankees in a minute. First, my season awards:

AL MVP: Consensus seems to be A-Rod this year, and it's hard to disagree. David Ortiz is getting some love, but the knock on him is that he doesn't play defense, and I agree. Rodriguez played an outstanding third base as well as hit the lights out. Nobody's worth $25 million, but A-Rod sure played like he deserves to be the highest paid player in the game. Two dark horses to watch out for: Manny Ramirez (although he's such a hotdog I can't see him getting it) and Paul Konerko, whose .283-40-100 season is pretty good.

AL Cy Young: Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland had both made strong cases for themselves right up until the All-Star break. Their second halves may have taken them out of the running. However, there's not much else to choose from. Johan Santana had a great second half, but his first half was, by his standards, awful. Nobody in New York or Boston distinguished themselves, and I don't think closers should win the award, so I think the best choice just might be Bartolo Colon and his 21-8 record. Don't be surprised, though, if either Mariano Rivera or Frankie Rodriguez' name gets announced.

AL Rookie of the Year: Hmm, which second baseman will it be? Tadahito Iguchi of the White Sox and Robinson Cano of the Yankees both came out of nowhere to post almost mirror-image seasons (Iguchi: .278-15-71, 15 SB in 20 attempts and a .780 OPS. Cano: .297-14-62, only 1 SB and a .778 OPS). Nick Swisher did hit 21 jacks, but a .236 BA is way too ugly to forgive. I son't have a compelling reason to pick him, but I'm going with Iguchi.

NL MVP: Derrek Lee: Great numbers, but your team sucked and you aren't as beloved as Andre Dawson (last player to win an MVP for a sub-.500 team). Albert Pujols, yet another awesome season, but I think St. Louis would still win the Central without you. So, step up, Andruw Jones, as you and your glorious .263-51-128 carry-the-team-to-the-playoffs-on-your-shoulders season gets you props.

AL Cy Young: With a month to go, I was giving the Cy Young to Chris Carpenter, despite the otherworldly performance of Roger Clemens. Then Carpenter decided (for whatever reason) to take September off and Clemens carried Houston to the NL wild card in the face of a furious Philadephia run to the finish. Yep, Clemens again and the Cy Young just might be the cherry on top of an ice cream sundae served in the World Series trophy.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francouer made such a strong case in July and August before wilting in September. Up to July, the award was Clint Barmes' to lose. But neither of them were around for the full season, like Colorado's Garrett Atkins (.287-13-89 with a .773 OPS) and Houston's Willy Taveras (.291-3-29, 34 SB in 45 attempts and a .666 OPS). However, Taveras gets the nod for stepping in as the leadoff spark the Astros desperately needed to make the playoffs.

Finallly, if anyone other than Eric Wedge or Ozzie Guillen wins AL Manager of the year, it's a travesty. Same thing if anyone other than Bobby Cox wins the NL.

Now, the Yankees.

Yes, they won the AL East. Only because Boston is as big a mess as they are. Yes, they made the playoffs, but look what happened when they got there. The mystique is, I'm afraid, gone. They have a great hitting lineup, but it's OLD. And the pitching is in complete disarray. Let's look at the situation. First, they HAVE to re-up with Matsui, because the need to upgrade from Bernie Williams in centre field is a higher priority and they won't find two outfielders in the free agent market (certainly not one of Matsui's caliber). I don't think Bubba Crosby is a long-term answer in centre and Jason Giambi is more fitting as the DH than as the everyday first baseman. The bench is ridiculously thin, too. The starting rotation should heal over the offseason. I expect a MUCH better Randy Johnson next year, now that he knows what to expect in New York. Combined with Chien-Ming Wang, Aaron Small and Carl Pavano, the Yankees could try to deal Mike Mussina to another team for some young talent. The Devil Rays have a wealth of outfield talent (Carl Crawford, Jonny Gomes, Delmon Young, the returning Rocco Baldelli) and they may be willing to part with an outfielder if they can a) get a pitcher of Mussina's caliber in return and b) the Yanks agree to eat part of the contract. They should be able to find some reasonable-priced pitching help for the bullpen in the free agent market and maybe even a serviceable first baseman. BUT....

The Yankees MUST start restocking the farm. Replacements will be needed in the next three to five years for many current mainstays (Jeter, Posada, Sheffield and Rivera for starters) and the Yankees have little to offer in trades. Besides which, it's inevitable that the Yankees will always be trade-deadline buyers (Steinbrenner wouldn't have it any other way). So, the scouts had better get cracking. 2006 and 2007 will be the last, best chance for a Yankees Series victory until possibly 2012. After 2007, things will get even thinner.

That's enough for tonight.

Please pray for me

2005-10-07T10:47:00.000-04:00

I have not been to work in the last week. I started to have vertigo/nausea attacks last week and they intensified to a point on Tuesday where I could not lift my head without suffering extreme vertigo after a ridiculous vomiting attack. Things were so bad, Christine had to call an ambulance to the house so I could be taken to emergency. I'm now going to see a Ear-nose-throat specialist on Tuesday (which is EXTREMELY fast) to check whether or not I have an inner-ear disorder. I have not attempted to travel anywhere since the Tuesday attack and will do some short trips this weekend.

Your prayers for me and my family are appreciated. I will update as events warrant.

Update: Things have been pretty good since Tuesday. I had a minor spell Wednesday night, but was able to sleep it off. I have a hearing test scheduled for this Tuesday and my prayer is to go the whole week without a spell.

Update 2: I had another minor spell Monday at work. The hearing test went badly, as my left ear is perfect, but the right's a mess. I'm being scheduled for a head MRI in the next few weeks. I'm sure they'll find nothing.

Post Season Predictions

2005-10-03T09:06:00.000-04:00

Well, the Indians coughed up a big hairball on the weekend and, as a result, are now planning their winter holidays. So, we get Yankees/Angels and Red Sox/White Sox in the ALDS and Astros/Braves and Padres/Cards in the NLDS. Let's break 'em down:

Yankees/Angels: By all rights, L.A. should win this series. The Yankees have major pitching issues, as Carl Pavano is on the shelf and Jaret Wright is pretty much useless. That means the Yanks will be using a rotation of Mussina, Chacon, Johnson and either Small or Wang in the DS with Mussina pitching either Game 4 or 5, depending on whether the Yanks are ahead or behind. The Angels set their rotation with Bartolo Colon going in Game 1, followed by John Lackey and Jarrod Washburn. If the Angels are up 2-1, I expect Ervin Santana will get the Game 4 nod, otherwise it'll be Colon. The Yankees are marginally better on offense and the bullpens are even. The Angels also know that they went through the Yankees to win the World Series a few years ago and they will likely believe they can do it again. One key is the fact that Francisco Rodriguez has never closed games in the playoffs before, so if he falters, the Angels are in trouble.

Yankee keys to success: A-Rod, Sheffield and Matsui must be hot. Johnson and Mussina must be healthy and able to get to the 8th inning (Gordon/Rivera time) and the bullpen needs to have their A-Game to bridge the gap from the starters to the 8th in the event the starters falter.

Angels keys to success: Chone Figgins must set the table for Vlad and the other big hitters, Steve Finley needs to produce, the bullpen must hold up and K-Rod needs to show he can handle playoff pressure.

The line: I just cannot see a way for the Yankees to come out ahead here, but I can't go against them either. So, I'll say Randy Johnson earns his money and pitches two wins and Chacon gets the third win, supported by Chien Ming Wang. Yankees in 5.

Red Sox/White Sox - This should be good. The Red Sox are the best-hitting team in the AL and the White Sox must win with pitching. Boston plans to start the series with the mercurial Matt Clement, which tells me they plan to use four pitchers (Tim Wakefield, Curt Schilling and David Wells along with Clement) because there's no way they use Clement on short rest. I would be surprised if Ozzie Guillen uses three pitchers, since he's got a pretty good starting 4 in Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras and Jon Garland. A bigger question is the two bullpens, both of which are in tatters, and Chicago's offense, which simply cannot keep pace with Boston.

Red Sox keys to success: Johnny Damon's shoulder cannot keep him from producing and setting the table for Ramirez, Ortiz et al, Mike Timlin must be able to close when the pressure's on and Curt Schilling must be CURT SCHILLING.

White Sox keys to success: Consistent hitting up-and-down the order. Garland and Buerhle must get back to mid-season form and Bobby Jenks has to be able to close the door under the glare of the playoffs.

The line: Chichago's pitching has been going slowly south all through the second half. If this is the July White Sox, this is a close series. However, it isn't and these Red Sox now know how to win in the postseason. Red Sox in 4.

On to the NL.........

Braves/Astros: This should be a no-brainer, but the Astros can be scary in a short series. With Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt as the top three starters and Brad Lidge waiting in the 8th or 9th, the Astros can be on the good side of a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games. Andruw Jones had an amazing season (51 jacks) but he has a history of vanishing in the playoffs. That puts the load on Chipper Jones, Macrus Giles, Rafael Furcal and a cast of kids. Plus, JORGE SOSA pitching the crucial game 3? Pretty brassy of Bobby Cox to make that call.

Braves keys to success: Hudson and Smoltz must win to take the pressure off Sosa. Kyle Farnsworth must step up when the money's on the line and Andruw Jones has got to be there.

Astros keys to success: Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge. If they don't bring it, the series is over.

The line: More often than not, good pitching beats good hitting in the postseason. Great pirching swamps good hitting 99% of the time. The Astros have great pitching. Astros in 4.

Cardinals/Padres: Ah, the great mismatch. After barely making it to .500, the Padres get fed to the best team in baseball in the DS. Just think, if Houston loses yesterday, this spot would belong to Philly while the Padres would get a much more favourable matchup with Atlanta. But it ain't that way. Having said that, this is not as cut and dry as you might think. Two of the Cards' top pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Matt Morris, have looked very ordinary in September and the Padres' top two, Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton, have served notice they're ready to go with great September outings. The big difference here is the Padres' lack of consistent offense, which will limit their chances.

Cardinals keys to success: Carpenter and Morris must bounce back. The big bats must adjust to Petco.

Padres keys to success: Eaton and Peavy need to be huge. The bullpen must bridge the gap to Hoffman. The offense has got to hit.

The line: Are you kidding? This sucker's over by the weekend. Cards in 3.

My LCS predictions: Yankees-Red Sox in an AL rematch and Astros-Cardinals in an NL rematch.

Post-Season awards to come.

Great weekend to be a baseball fan

2005-09-29T09:01:00.000-04:00

Give the MLB schedulers a big pat on the back this year. With all but three playoff races now all but decided (I am leaving out the NL Wild Card, since I expect the schizophrenic Phillies to fold like a cheap tent this weekend, letting Houston escape), we get two three-game winner take all series to decide the final three spots in the AL (the Angels are already in as AL West champs).

The Yankees and Red Sox will square off at Fenway. Going into tonight, the Yanks have a 1-game lead over the Sox as they finish up their respective penultimate series (Yanks against Baltimore, Sox against Toronto). The pitching matchups are all very compelling, as Chien-Ming Wang goes against David Wells Friday, Randy Johnson faces white-hot Tim Wakefield Saturday and Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling lock up Sunday. If both teams win tonight, a playoff is possible. If the Yanks open a 2-game lead, they will need only 1 win in the series to wrap it up. If they are tied after tonight, it's a best-of three.

The White Sox (who should have NEVER been in this spot) will face the Indians in Cleveland. Each will wrap a series tonight (Sox face Detroit, Indians have T-Bay (who have already won the first two games of the series)) and, assuming the Indians win, they will play for the division title. If the Indians lose tonight and the Sox win, it's all over. Pitching matchups are: Mark Buerhle v. Kevin Millwood, Jon Garland v. Jake Westbrook and Brandon McCarthy v. Scott Elarton. The lead is 3 as of this morning and the White Sox are definitely in the driver's seat, and an 11-5 record head-to-head against the Indians certainly looks favourable, but you better believe the Sox will be looking to wrap things up tonight. A Sox win tonight means they clinch at least a share of first place and, even if the Sox lose tonight and the Indians win (cutting the lead to 2 games), the Indians are still faced with the daunting task of sweeping the Sox to catch/pass them.

However, Cleveland is also playing for the wild card. With a 92-66 record, the Indians are tied with Boston. There are many ways things can play out here, so lets look at the math:

Update: Well, as expected, everyone won last night. I also was, apparently, on something when I did my math yesterday, as there a few inconsistencies in the original post, so I'm replacing that mess with this section. Let's do it again:

As of today, the Yankees (94-65) lead the AL East by one game over Boston (93-66). Cleveland is also 93-66, tied for the wild card with Boston. Chicago is now in, as is LA. The Yankees need two wins over Boston this weekend to clinch the AL East.

Playoff scenarios for Boston:

If Boston wins once, they can only make the wild card. For that to happen, Cleveland must lose to Chicago twice or be swept. A Sox sweep puts Cleveland out. One Cleveland win forces a one-game playoff on Monday between the Sox and the Indians.
If Boston sweeps the Yankees, they win the East outright.
If Boston wins twice (tying the Yanks), it gets muddy. If Cleveland is swept by Chicago, or loses two of three, there will be no AL East playoff. Since the Yankees win the season series with Boston 10-9, the Yankees would win the AL East and the Sox are the wild card. If Cleveland wins two games against Chicago and Boston two against NY, Boston and Cleveland meet in a one-game playoff for the wild card Monday while the Yankees (again based on head-to-head) are the AL East champs. If Cleveland sweeps Chicago, Boston is out.

Playoff scenarios for NY are a bit simpler.

Win once and they are guaranteed a tie for the AL East. If Cleveland sweeps the Sox, then the Indians (at 96-66) win the wild card and Boston and NY (each at 95-67) have a one-game playoff for the AL East title. Otherwise, the Yanks win the East and Boston drops into the third scenario outlined above.
Win twice or more, they win the AL East.
If the Yankees are swept, it depends on Cleveland. If Cleveland wins once, the Yankees and Cleveland play off on Monday for the wild card. If Cleveland wins twice or more, the Yankees are out.

And finally, for Cleveland:

Sweep the White Sox, win the wild card.
Win twice, they win the wild card if Boston loses twice or the Red Sox sweep the Yankees. If the Red Sox win twice, the Indians and Red Sox play off for the wild card.
Win once, they win the wild card ONLY if the Yankees sweep the Sox. If the Red Sox win once, the Indians and Red Sox play off. If the Red Sox sweep, the Indians and Yankees play off.

NL is really easy. If the Astros take two of three from the Cubs or the Phils drop two of three to Washington (or the 'Stros win once and the Phils lose once) the Astros take the NL Wild Card.

Any way you slice it, though, it should be a very exciting weekend of baseball and, hopefully, these games can be found on TV this weekend. Playoff predictions and season-end award predictions coming Monday.

Quelle semaine!!!!!

2005-09-19T21:56:00.000-04:00

At least, I think that's "What a Weekend" in French.

Great first birthday party for Aaron on Saturday. Lots of fun. The whole family was over along with a few friends. Christine outdid herself, making an AMAZING birthday cake for Aaron. Here's some pics:

Pretty impressive, no? The grass on the sides, waterfall and the base icing are all made from scratch. The trees are pretzel twists with green icing and the black stuff is cookie crumbs. Took Christine the better part of 12 hours, what with baking the cakes and putting it all together. More proof why I like her best.

Topped off the weekend by celebrating our 6th wedding anniversary Sunday. Celebrated by taking the kids minigolfing and then to McDonald's. Probably my favourite anniversary yet.

Later.

Big Day Today

2005-09-14T10:56:00.000-04:00

My big boy, Aidan, rode the bus to school BY HIMSELF today. His first day of JK. Gotta say it wasn't easy letting him go, but it was comforting to know that wherever he goes, he goes with God.